Fellow Nurses Africa | 07 September 2025 | Lagos Nigeria
International health experts warn of catastrophic consequences as funding freeze disrupts decades of progress
The abrupt withdrawal of United States global health funding has created what international health organizations are calling one of the most severe humanitarian crises in recent history, with experts warning that millions of lives hang in the balance as critical health programs face unprecedented disruptions worldwide.
The Scope of the Crisis
Following the January 24, 2025 freeze of all foreign aid programs, including the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the global health landscape has been fundamentally altered. The World Health Organization issued its starkest warning yet, stating that the cessation of US funding threatens to reverse years of progress in global health initiatives.
The numbers paint a devastating picture. PEPFAR alone provides lifesaving antiretroviral therapy to more than 20 million people living with HIV globally. Research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that development assistance for health declined by 21% between 2024 and 2025, driven largely by a 67% drop in US contributions—a reduction of more than $9 billion.
Immediate Consequences Across Disease Areas
HIV/AIDS: A Looming Catastrophe
The impact on HIV/AIDS care has been particularly severe. International AIDS Society President Beatriz Grinsztejn warned that stopping PEPFAR funding “essentially stops HIV treatment” for millions, stating bluntly: “people are going to die and HIV will resurge.”
New modeling suggests catastrophic outcomes ahead. Experts project up to 74,000 excess HIV deaths in Africa alone by 2030 if current funding cuts continue. Health economist Brooke Nichols estimates that as of May 2025, approximately 96,000 adults and 200,000 children have already died due to reductions in government funding for aid and support organizations.
PEPFAR’s tracking systems show significant increases in HIV transmission and HIV-related deaths as a direct result of the funding freeze. The program, which accounts for more than 90% of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) initiations globally, had reached 2.5 million people protected from HIV infection in fiscal year 2024 before the freeze took effect.
Broader Health System Collapse
The withdrawal extends far beyond HIV care. In Afghanistan, the WHO warns that without urgent intervention, over 220 additional health facilities could close by June 2025, leaving an additional 1.8 million Afghans without access to primary healthcare.
The UN Population Fund projects devastating maternal health consequences, estimating that between 2025 and 2028 in Afghanistan alone, the absence of US support will likely result in 1,200 additional maternal deaths and 109,000 additional unintended pregnancies.
Global Disease Surveillance Crippled
Perhaps most concerning for global health security, the funding cuts have dismantled critical disease surveillance infrastructure. The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee reported that the country’s 50-country network for surveillance of deadly diseases “from bird flu to swine fever” is gone, along with emergency response systems that had reduced outbreak response times from more than two weeks to less than 48 hours.
Widespread Geographic Impact
The effects span continents. In Latin America and the Caribbean, health officials report increased risks of new HIV infections, higher mortality rates, and deteriorating quality of care for people living with HIV. In Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh—home to the world’s largest refugee camp—diagnosis and treatment programs face severe disruptions.
Looking Ahead: A Transformed Landscape
Health financing experts describe the current situation as representing a fundamental change in the global health landscape. “The climate has fundamentally changed,” notes Joseph Dieleman, who leads health resource tracking at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
While some partial waivers have been granted for certain PEPFAR programs delivering life-saving services, these measures fall far short of addressing the scale of need. The freeze affects programs supporting 20.6 million people, including 550,000 children, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 67% of the global HIV burden.
Public and Policy Response
Polling data from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that most Americans believe the cutbacks at USAID will lead to increases in illness and death in low-income countries. However, the same research reveals that the public significantly overestimates the share of the federal budget spent on foreign aid, highlighting a disconnect between perception and reality regarding US global health investments.
International organizations and health advocates continue to call for restoration of funding, emphasizing that the withdrawal represents what Brookings Institution researchers describe as “one of the fastest and largest donor exits in history.”
Conclusion
As the global health community grapples with these unprecedented challenges, the full extent of the humanitarian consequences is only beginning to emerge. With disease surveillance networks dismantled, treatment programs suspended, and millions at risk of losing access to life-saving care, experts warn that the health gains achieved over decades of international cooperation may be rapidly eroding.
The crisis underscores the interconnected nature of global health security and raises fundamental questions about the role of international cooperation in addressing health challenges that transcend national borders. As health systems worldwide struggle to fill the funding gap left by US withdrawal, the coming months will be critical in determining whether alternative support mechanisms can emerge to prevent what many fear could become one of the most devastating public health crises in modern history.
This article is based on reports from international health organizations, academic research institutions, and government agencies documenting the ongoing impacts of US health aid withdrawal on global health programs worldwide.
